Future predictions, uncertainty and Unpredictability

Future predictions, uncertainty and Unpredictability Some authors state that the key difference between human intelligence and animal intelligence is that human perform “conscious and not infrequent planning for the future”. Maybe that started with a “where do we search for food today” question. As we often discuss in this blog, planning in the face of uncertainty requires some notion of what is likely or unlikely to happen. From here, it only seems “natural” that we must all have some intuitive…

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BBQ risks probability uncertainty unpredictability

risks probability uncertainty unpredictability Today it’s kinda windy, some clouds, I feel just fine, but my wife thinks it’s cold when the sun goes incognito behind the clouds. Quite an uncertain weather, right? Focus now on the possible downward outcome: rain later in the day, during our open air BBQ (rain is the hazard, BBQ is the part of the system which will be potentially hit). We can measure the related uncertainty using the POP (Probability of Precipitation) released by…

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