Crisis Forecast One Year Later

Crisis Forecast One Year Later

Dec 1st, 2009

On 14-15 Sept 2008 Lehman Brother went down in flames.

In the aftermath of Lehman Brother crash we published on internet a forecast of the crisis “duration and magnitude”. Interestingly, only a handful of contacts asked us clarifications and to give details on the scale of consequence we had used (is it linked to stock markets? To financial indicators?)…
May be, no one believed that reasonable predictions can be made?

As we were publishing our prediction, we were indeed already seeing in the media statements reporting that “quantitative models were wrong” and other inflammatory statements. As usual, in panic/emergency situations, our society tends to react with little finesse (that’s by the way one reason why Crisis Management Plans are so important to implement BEFORE a crisis).

“Models” as a whole were discredited in the eyes of many readers and “forecasters”, now seen as pariah, became persona non grata.

Apparently no one bothered to say that “some models” are plainly wrong or were very poorly used, but others may work just fine!
No one bothered either to say that may be some ruthless people had used the models in order to get the replies they wanted (we have seen the same happen in fields as different from financial forecasts as humanitarian demining, and we have even published papers on this subject, all along with others).

In the full paper we summarize the prediction as it was made one year ago, and we analyze how it stands in front of one more year of history.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,

Category: Crisis management, Hazard, Risk analysis, Risk management, Tolerance/Acceptability

One response to “Crisis Forecast One Year Later”

  1. […] is vanishing, like many other government-created artificial heavens. The reason is, of course, the Recession, the one that was declared finished by many politicians a while ago, but mind you, not by […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Riskope Blog latests posts

  • New achievements in risk assessment and management
  • 2-05-2023
  • New achievements in risk assessment and management will be attained thanks to SRK Consulting merging with Riskope. Indeed, we are…
  • Read More
  • Open letter to the organizer of the tailings dam round robin exercise
  • 29-03-2023
  • Dear Ryan, please receive this open letter to the organizer of the tailings dam round robin exercise. It explains our…
  • Read More
  • Landslides risk assessment and monitoring
  • 8-03-2023
  • During the first couple decades of our professional life we worked extensively with Landslides risk assessment and monitoring in the…
  • Read More
  • Get in Touch
  • Learn more about our services by contacting us today
  • t +1 604-341-4485
  • +39 347-700-7420

Hosted and powered by WR London.