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Bad decisions habits research won Nobel Prize in economics

We welcome the fact that Bad decisions habits research won Nobel Prize in economics. We are going to expose why we are so enthusiastic about the research by Prof. Thaler of the University of Chicago. We will discuss why this research is useful in explaining the difficulties some organizations have in supporting risk-management programs. In the past we have already cited behavioral economics, for example the work by Kahneman and Tversky to show how human judgment is often clouded by…

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Solar Storm hazard and risks

We look today at Solar Storm hazard and risks after discussing Volcanoes and Meteorites. This video shows both X-class flares from June 10, 2014. Credit: NASA/SDO/Goddard Like we did for the other “mega” hazards, we will start with a bit of history. “Carrington-class” solar storm hazard and risks On September 1st –2nd 1859, people observed one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms due to solar activities. Beside anomalous and wide-spread auroras occurrences, telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed,…

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Developing a risk assessment for Asteroids Earth collision

Developing a risk assessment for Asteroids Earth collision is not about knowing when the next big impact of an asteroid on Earth will be. As a matter of fact it is to understand, for example, if: The recent decision (December 2016) by European ministers to decline funding part of the project to intercept a space-rock is reasonable. The aim would be to use the crash to deviate the trajectory. The idea above is reasonable when comparing, for example, other “space”…

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Pelican beak analogy shows enhanced planning benefits

The pelican beak analogy shows enhanced planning benefits. As you probably know it by now, we have expressed skepticism toward using  buzzwords like black swan and others, for numerous reasons. That does not stop us, however, to come out today with another avian analogy. The pelican analogy displays in a simplified manner the capital required by an entity, i.e. a project, startup, basically any endeavor. It displays as the straight orange line. The capital produced in the meantime, i.e. the purple…

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Tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment

Tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment is the title of our latest paper on this extremely interesting subject. The paper uses a case history to show how we helped management of a complex operation with a portfolio of dams to develop a risk management road-map. In addition uncertainties, incomplete information are always explicitly considered when we deploy tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment. Tailings dam portfolio screening level risk assessment The dam portfolio approach addresses managers who have…

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