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Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework

Can you detect Probabilities inconsistencies in a Risk Management Framework ? While performing a Risk Management Functions Audit we were asked to review the following Probability-Annual frequency categories. Cat Probability Annual Frequency 5 >95% More than once per year 4 50 to 94% At least once every other yr 3 20 to 49% Once every 2 to 5 years 2 5 to 19% Every 5 to 20 years 1 <5% Less than once every 20 yrs The values of the…

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Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations

Cadia tailings facility failure expert review and risk considerations allow us to discuss InSAR application and low seismicity considerations for pre-failure risk assessment. The Cadia Ridgeway Mine failure was already the object of a preliminary discussion in the immediate aftermath of the unfortunate event. These themes are very important and are present in our forthcoming book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century What Mining Companies Need to Know and Do to Thrive in Our Complex World By Franco Oboni and…

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Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century

Riskope’s new book Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century is in print. This book is based on over thirty years of world-wide consulting experience, relentless methodological research and development, prior books, courses, seminars delivered to corporate key stakeholders, public and governmental agencies, public hearings, expert witnessing in civil and criminal courts, and over fifty technical papers. Its purpose is to identify and describe risk assessment approaches and risk management practices mining must implement to develop a positive path forward. That is…

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Talking about return rate is a disservice to the public

Talking about return rate is a disservice to the public even if flood experts usually use the term when communicating to the public. Background of Bell Falls Hydro Dam The officials stated that: “… The dam was designed for a maximum one-thousand-year flood of 960 cubic metres per second.” We will look at relatively rare events. For the sake of this discussion, let’s consider events with a probability of less than 1/10 per year. At 1/10 talking about probability to…

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Evacuating Grenville-sur-la-Rouge is a good decision but maybe not the right one

Evacuating Grenville-sur-la-Rouge is a good decision but maybe not the right one. Indeed, when performing Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) a distinction must be made between right decisions and good decisions. A bit of background of on Bell Falls Hydro Dam Reportedly, the officials stated that: “we’re running about 940 cubic metres per second, and they predict it could go up as much as 1300 cubic metres per second. The dam was designed for a maximum one-thousand-year flood of 960…

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