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Multi dimensional Consequences approaches take into consideration the varied losses that a failure can generate. Thus they allow for a more thorough and rational evaluation of a failure potential consequences. Indeed, by breaking down the consequences into distinct dimensions, such as environmental, economic, and social, an additive evaluation of multi dimensional consequences can provide a more realistic assessment of the risks associated with a failure. This approach also allows for greater consideration of the long-term implications of the failure. These…Read More
We need to diverge from “cosi fan tutti” if we want to truly bring something valuable to our profession and the public. Some professions are open to “disruption” and thus foster innovation. However, many voices around the world comment that strategic/ operational risk assessments, including tailings risk assessments are stuck in a complacent lull. Bring something valuable to our profession and the public is way more than doing our job diligently and perhaps having a fantastic career. Indeed, our friend…Read More
We thought of Wells Fargo judgement and Tailings risks in follow-up to the recent judgement against a number of bank’s officers. The judgement cites widespread failure to: “identify the root cause of …misconduct”, “provide credible challenges to risk controls managers”, “timely evaluate the effectiveness of risk controls” and finally, “timely identify, address and escalate the risk management controls failures that threatened the safety, soundness and reputation…”. At first sight one may be tempted to dismiss this “banking-legal” stuff as not…Read More
A mining company asked us to perform a Prefeasibility hazard adjusted NPV evaluation. Our action first focused on bringing clarity in their risk register which presented numerous classic mistakes. Among these the usual confusion in terminology, confusing risks and hazards, uncertainties vs risks, etc. Once the risk register was corrected it was possible to perform the requested hazard adjusted NPV and to draw valuable conclusions. Among these, we highlighted potential fatal flaws of the project which warranted in depth analyses…Read More
As everyone else, we got excited about the new ChatGPT so we tried OpenAI’s ChatGPT applied to tailings dams and associated risks. OpenAI is San Francisco-based research laboratory. Its founders and donors are, among others, Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, along with technology companies like Microsoft. ChatGPT is a publicly available free app that generates “human-like” written replies. The acronym GPT stands for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer” . Note that our colleague Mike Porter started a thread on ChatGPT on LinkedIn. Numerous members…Read More
TMW2022 discussion and video presentation covers some important points and coveys our gratitude to the friendly colleagues that helped us overcome a significant work overload. Indeed, for the first time since 2013, we could not make it to the conference to present in person the results of our R&D. We were particularly sorry for this, as the reviewer wrote: The authors present a discussion on how to optimize actions needed to address risk mitigation to ALARP for a large TSF…Read More
Oftentimes we hear people objecting to quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Thus today we show three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount. Now, do not get mistaken, those are not the only cases where QRA is useful. However, they are particularly significant. Risk review of a mining mega project New projects are always exciting. Therefore their promoters oftentimes get emotionally attached to them to the point of forgetting that they may be exposed to significant risks. The use of codes…Read More
Tailings risk correlations or lack thereof refers to a phenomenon we oftentimes encounter in ORE ERMs deployments in various industries. The risk bubble in the p-C graph The figure below shows a classic simplified result from a ERM. The quadrant is the probability (p), Consequence (C) quadrant with the addition of the risk tolerance band. The band has a width corresponding to the divergent opinion between optimistic and pessimistic key stakeholders on tolerance. A given hazard has uncertainties on both…Read More