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Cost and schedule risks

We all know that megaprojects including hydroelectric ones are subject to Cost and schedule risks. Experts recently confirmed this to the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Project. They said it is common for such projects to evolve with understated early cost estimates. That was the conclusion of a report which looks at 274 hydro dam projects around the world, including projects in Canada. Reportedly this is the largest academic data set of its kind in the world.…

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Tailings and Mine Waste 2018 risk the good the bad and the ugly

Like we did in London last year, here are our Tailings and Mine Waste 2018 risk the good the bad and the ugly. The good It was very good to hear the John Lupo Keynote Lecture develop ideas about risk and the human element. He introduced to the audience biases and cognitive biases. He was able to get some amused reactions from the audience as he was explaining very important concepts. Let’s see if anyone will remember anything from his…

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Questions from a reader interested in risk assessment

We received a number of questions from a reader interested in risk assessment. After we replied we thought these questions may be of general interest, so, here they are, with their answers. General questions from a reader interested in risk assessment Q1: On your website you use acronyms such as FTA and ETA what are these? A1: Failure Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis(ETA) are tools used to evaluate the probability of failure and/or the development of complex events starting…

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Tailings management Geoethics considerations

Tailings 2.0 include Tailings management Geoethics considerations. Furthermore Tailings 2.0 fosters the link between a new way of tackling quantitative risk assessments and geoethics requirements in modern society. Tailings 2.0, the result of over twenty years of research and development, marries the requirements presented in the UNEP report and offers unparalleled support to independent risk assessors. The UNEP report identifies its requirement in distinct ways. For example by stating: “Establish independent waste review boards to conduct and publish independent technical reviews…

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Tactical and Strategic tailings dams risk management

Tailings 2.0 is designed to allow Tactical and strategic tailings dams risk management. Tactical and strategic tailings dams risk management The definition of corporate risk tolerance and acceptability foreseen in Tailings 2.0 allows to sort risks in tolerable/acceptable, intolerable but manageable, intolerable and requiring a strategic shift (in short: strategic risks). This is the most pertinent and efficient way to sort risks. We can actually see the three different classes of risk, namely the blue, yellow and red classes. The…

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Tailings dam interdependent failures and consequences quantifications

Tailings dam interdependent failures and consequences quantifications are studied in Tailings 2.0 as they are often present even within a single dam cross section. In this case they are called internal inter-dependencies. Inter-dependencies are also known as domino effects. Tailings dam interdependent failures and consequences quantifications First we look at the tailings dam interdependent failures. Figures 1, 2 show two classic examples, of interdependencies. These are present in many mines and require careful evaluation. Pipe spills are rather common. If…

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ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure

Today we discuss how ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure. The considered mine for this case history has a portfolio of 15 dams. The figure below shows in the vertical axis the annual Probability of failure (pf) results under the form of yellow vertical bars. The extreme of the bars represent the minimum and maximum estimates of the probability of failure for each dam. Hence, the length of the bars measures the uncertainty on the evaluation of…

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Space observable data for tailings dam probability of failure

Tailings 2.0 first step is focusing on Space observable data for tailings dam probability of failure.  The probability of failure for each dam in the clients’ portfolio is in essence the result of a multitude of actions/inactions, features and behaviors. Portfolios can go from one to a few dams and finally, for example, hundreds of dams. In this second TMW2018 course summary blogpost we discuss how probabilities are evaluated. However all the fundamental steps which constitute the theoretical developments are freely…

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