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Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk and Crisis Management

Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk and Crisis Management is the title of our 2007 book. The book has sold through our website in 34 countries to individuals and CxOs eager to get a look into quantitative and rational risk management. Today, one can easily state that sustainability is a big topic in the Western chemical and mining, oil & gas industries. Companies want to be sustainability leaders although in some cases their claim sound more like PR campaigns. A recent…

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Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment

Tailings dams quantitative risk assessment has to rely on proper evaluation of consequences and probabilities. The goal is to be able to economically and swiftly prioritize a portfolio of dams. That is in order to develop risk informed decision making for mitigation as also discussed in a recent blogpost. ORE2_Tailings app to evaluate probabilities ORE2_Tailings app is primarily addressing the needs of owners or regulators of dam portfolios. A dam portfolio may cover several extractive centers, several mining companies with…

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Risk analysis of dam break

Last week we focused on technical aspects of the Risk analysis of dam break. This week we go further by looking at societal tolerance and approaches. These may integrate ethical and economical approaches to these studies. Probability of failure and bench-marking of the case history dam A recent study of a tailings dam (centerline, rockfill, well investigated, built and monitored) using the ORE2_Tailings app delivered an estimate of the probability of failure. The result was pf in the 10-4 to…

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Consequences of tailings dams failures

Recent tailings disasters such as the failure of the Mount Polley and Samarco dams have focused the attention on the Consequences of tailings dams failures. Consequences of tailings dams failures: outflow volume and runout distance Classic approaches Various classic approaches (Rico et al., 2008, Azam & Li, 2010) assume that the volume of released tailings is a function of storage volume. Dam height intervenes, particularly for the runout distance preliminary evaluation. They find “statistical correlations” using a set of dam…

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Cost and schedule risks

We all know that megaprojects including hydroelectric ones are subject to Cost and schedule risks. Experts recently confirmed this to the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Project. They said it is common for such projects to evolve with understated early cost estimates. That was the conclusion of a report which looks at 274 hydro dam projects around the world, including projects in Canada. Reportedly this is the largest academic data set of its kind in the world.…

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Tailings management Geoethics considerations

Tailings 2.0 include Tailings management Geoethics considerations. Furthermore Tailings 2.0 fosters the link between a new way of tackling quantitative risk assessments and geoethics requirements in modern society. Tailings 2.0, the result of over twenty years of research and development, marries the requirements presented in the UNEP report and offers unparalleled support to independent risk assessors. The UNEP report identifies its requirement in distinct ways. For example by stating: “Establish independent waste review boards to conduct and publish independent technical reviews…

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Tailings and Mine Waste TMW2018 Short Course: Tailings 2.0

During the one day Tailings and Mine Waste TMW2018 Short Course: Tailings 2.0 we will discuss a synergistic approach for Tailings dams risk assessment and long term monitoring. Tailings 2.0 encompasses an updatable, scalable, drillable and convergent Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) platform (see ORE2-Tailings ) and Space Observation monitoring as main or complementary to extant classic monitoring programs. ORE2-Tailings ORE2-Tailings uses multiple data sources to deliver initial estimates regarding probability of occurrence of dams’ failures, benchmarks them with the world-wide…

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Highway Bridge Catastrophic Failure in Genoa, Italy

It is very saddening to report about the Highway Bridge Catastrophic Failure in Genoa, Italy just one week after the horrific accident in Bologna. The bridge, build in 1967 was a stayed pre-stressed reinforced concrete structure. Its futuristic design and lines drew comments from inception. This time again we will not enter in any legal/political debate, but look at the tragedy with our risk management eyes. We have decided to start the discussion using a few cognitive biases and misconceptions that…

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