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Questions from a reader interested in risk assessment

We received a number of questions from a reader interested in risk assessment. After we replied we thought these questions may be of general interest, so, here they are, with their answers. General questions from a reader interested in risk assessment Q1: On your website you use acronyms such as FTA and ETA what are these? A1: Failure Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis(ETA) are tools used to evaluate the probability of failure and/or the development of complex events starting…

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Tactical and Strategic tailings dams risk management

Tailings 2.0 is designed to allow Tactical and strategic tailings dams risk management. Tactical and strategic tailings dams risk management The definition of corporate risk tolerance and acceptability foreseen in Tailings 2.0 allows to sort risks in tolerable/acceptable, intolerable but manageable, intolerable and requiring a strategic shift (in short: strategic risks). This is the most pertinent and efficient way to sort risks. We can actually see the three different classes of risk, namely the blue, yellow and red classes. The…

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ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure

Today we discuss how ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure. The considered mine for this case history has a portfolio of 15 dams. The figure below shows in the vertical axis the annual Probability of failure (pf) results under the form of yellow vertical bars. The extreme of the bars represent the minimum and maximum estimates of the probability of failure for each dam. Hence, the length of the bars measures the uncertainty on the evaluation of…

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Space observable data for tailings dam probability of failure

Tailings 2.0 first step is focusing on Space observable data for tailings dam probability of failure.¬†¬†The probability of failure for each dam in the clients’ portfolio is in essence the result of a multitude of actions/inactions, features and behaviors. Portfolios can go from one to a few dams and finally, for example, hundreds of dams. In this second TMW2018 course summary blogpost we discuss how probabilities are evaluated. However all the fundamental steps which constitute the theoretical developments are freely…

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Tailings and Mine Waste TMW2018 Short Course: Tailings 2.0

During the one day Tailings and Mine Waste TMW2018 Short Course: Tailings 2.0 we will discuss a synergistic approach for Tailings dams risk assessment and long term monitoring. Tailings 2.0 encompasses an updatable, scalable, drillable and convergent Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) platform (see ORE2-Tailings ) and Space Observation monitoring as main or complementary to extant classic monitoring programs. ORE2-Tailings ORE2-Tailings uses multiple data sources to deliver initial estimates regarding probability of occurrence of dams’ failures, benchmarks them with the world-wide…

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Improving project cost evaluations

We read last week a CIM annoucement of a Metallurgy and Materials Society (MetSoc) webinar on September 20 about Improving project cost evaluations. BQE Water President & CEO David Kratochvil will present the seminar. Subject matter Our friend David will discuss the shortcomings of conventional Net Present Value and risk assessments applied to water treatment plants. He will explain how to overcome potential uncertainties with the Risk Adjusted Life Cycle Cost analysis approach. Comparing alternatives for a project requires careful…

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Highway Bridge Catastrophic Failure in Genoa, Italy

It is very saddening to report about the Highway Bridge Catastrophic Failure in Genoa, Italy just one week after the horrific accident in Bologna. The bridge, build in 1967 was a stayed pre-stressed reinforced concrete structure. Its futuristic design and lines drew comments from inception. This time again we will not enter in any legal/political debate, but look at the tragedy with our risk management eyes. We have decided to start the discussion using a few cognitive biases and misconceptions¬†that…

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Laotian hydro dam collapse

A series of events starting Sunday July 22nd lead to a Laotian hydro dam collapse with nefarious consequences on the population downstream. The collapsed dam was part of the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy hydroelectric power project, still under construction. Xe-Pian and Xe-Namnoy are the main dams of the project. The project is located in the central Laotian Attapeu Province, involves Laotian, Thai and South Korean firms. Laos PDR is particularly rich in vertical drops with hydro-generating potential. As a matter of fact,…

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