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Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures

The title of our new book is Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures. The manuscript was delivered to our publisher on March 1st 2021 and should be published by July 29th 2021. How will Convergent Leadership Divergent Exposures benefit you? Today’s corporate, industrial and government decision makers must address risks and hazards on a scale never before encountered. As a matter of fact, policy makers and managers face complex business-as-usual hazards, black swans and Acts of God that can lead to devastating…

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Why everything we know about Tailings Dams failure is wrong

If you think the title is provocative you are right. Why everything we know about Tailings Dams failure is wrong aims to discuss a different way of looking at TD failures. Biases occur if one uses statistical samples from a failure data base to evaluate TD likelihood of failure. That is because one considers the sub sample of failed dam as opposed to the overall inventory. Indeed if one ignores the base inventory one could draw misleading conclusions. Berkson’s paradox…

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Comments on a risk assessment tool for tailings storage facilities

A colleague of ours asked for comments on a risk assessment tool for tailings storage facilities paper by Chovan et al (A risk assessment tool for tailings storage facilities (cdnsciencepub.com)). We accepted and decided to prepare this piece. The reason is that we have seen various other attempts by reputable engineering companies to use similar methodologies leading to similar comments from our end. The application of simplified methodologies, or unproven approximations in the field of tailings dams could harm people…

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Convergent risk assessments

Convergent risk assessments integrate areas that are significant to an organization, such as operational risk generated by various hazards or compliance, within a single framework. In the meantime, convergent risk assessments suppress informational siloes and therefore tend to explicitly tackle systemic interdependencies. Convergent risk assessment A convergent risk assessment looks at a silos-free system where: physical, informational geographical, and finally logical risk information converge in a single platform. Convergent risk assessments have to be holistic by definition. We discuss the definitions…

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Holistic Geoethical Slopes’ Portfolio Risk Assessment in Geological Society

We are proud to publish Holistic Geoethical Slopes’ Portfolio Risk Assessment in Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 508. We want to personally thank Giuseppe Di Capua of IAPG for inviting us. Here is a summary of what we discuss in our paper Landslides of natural and man-made slopes, including dykes and dams represent hazardous geomorphological processes that generate highly variable risks. To optimize a slope mitigation approach, one has to combine the probability of failure and the cost of consequences…

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The impact of standard of care on dams survivability

Using ORE2_Tailings we can quantify the impact of standard of care on dams survivability. In this blogpost we take three dams, namely Dam x, Dam y and Dam z. Their design was identical with initial factor of safety of 1.3. In addition, they had similar QA/QC, construction method, same systemic approach, efforts and uncertainties consideration. Various small mishaps hit the dams along their history. Some repairs occurred, under different contracts, different quality control and finally, at different times. It turns…

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Quantitative Convergent ERM to Solve Real Life Problem

Riskope presented at Infonex (https://infonex.com/ ) Quantitative Convergent ERM to Solve Real Life Problem. The conference was carried out on Zoom and the talks were, of course recorded. What is ERM?  Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a plan-based decision-making support. It allows its users to enhance their tactical and strategic planning and therefore to increase competitiveness. Indeed, it aims to identify, assess, and prepare a project, corporation to cope with threats and hazards. Threats and hazards can occur with different…

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SLM and the Probability of failure of a tailings dam

SLM and the probability of failure of a tailings dam goes back 35 years.  A paper entitled “Probability and Risk of Slope Failure” (Silva et al., 2008) proposed using quantification of expert judgement.  That is a subjective/semi-empirical probability evaluation as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. We call this approach SLM, using the initials of the authors. SLM culminates with semi-empirical relationships between Factor of Safety -FoS- and probability of failure -pf-. That relationship allows to estimate…

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