Two real life examples of Phase I Risk Based Decision Making

Risk Based Decision Making We would like to show you two examples of Phase I Risk Based Decision Making. Phase I means that a preliminary decision is made based on Risk Prioritization alone. That is without financial comparative evaluations of the alternatives using CDA-ESM. In other words without evaluating the long term cost of the alternatives including upside and downside risks. When users include risks in long term cost estimates they refer to the procedure as risk adjusted cost The…

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BP Crisis Rational Analysis: What BP Did Not Perform?

  Now it’s time to test the Risk and Crisis Evaluation Methodology we published back in 2008 on the BP Gulf of Mexico spill. We originally presented the methodology in our book (F. Oboni & C. Oboni, Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk & Crisis Management, 2007). Risk and Crisis Evaluation Methodology Let’s start with the probability of the spill. At Riskope we: are not oil experts, so can only assume that this accident, that various voices in the media declared as…

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Can we quantify reputational risk? Basel Committee is getting close to asking this.

quantify reputational risk The Basel Committee is getting closer to asking firms to try to quantify reputational risk and at Riskope we consider it absolutely feasible. Indeed, in the probability-cost of consequence plot (i.e. the “risk space”) reputational risks can be easily added (they come as costs multipliers). These two presentations: Pres1 and Pres2 contain information from our courses and book related to adding reputational components to standard risk assessments and risk based decision making. This type of analyses can…

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Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast

Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast This Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast course is the perfect alternative for busy professionals! Attend these live sessions from your workstation at home or in the office. Prior to the course you will have access to online e-learning material which will increase your understanding and appreciation of the webcast. This course also contributes to your Continuing Professional Development (CPD)! Summary This course introduces a unified transparent approach to risk and crisis management…

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Long term risk mitigation plans at country wide scale can be measured

Humanity’s risk profile is changing Long term risk mitigation plans at country wide scale can be measured. The elements of humanity’s global risk equation, which already seem, also thanks to media and informational pressures, to describe an ascending and worrisome trajectory, will change radically in the future (Financial Times, 2007). Among these changes we can cite: Some parameters of change Global climate change (natural hazards). The intensity/magnitude, probability and annual distribution of many natural hazards may change because of global…

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Enhancing Efficiency and Efficacy in Humanitarian Programs

Enhancing Efficiency and Efficacy When Enhancing Efficiency and Efficacy we often confuse efficiency and efficacy. Efficiency corresponds to an operation with a high result-versus-costs ratio, for example results vs. energy, time, and money. Efficacy characterizes an action with the power to produce an effect. Efficiency means doing as good a good a job as possible. Effectiveness means getting a result by doing the right job. Reportedly neither efficiency nor efficacy rank very high in the Humanitarian Programs industry, one that…

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Kiss Approach To Risk Based Decision Making

Who doesn’t have to make decisions? Private decisions? Job related/business decisions? No matter your age, position, job, we all have to make decisions almost on a day to day basis. Decisions alternatives, even the straight forward ones, often have hidden/secondary effects, and most of the time are made more difficult by our perception, sentimental values etc. Large corporations sometimes use highly sophisticated procedures to support their decisions on capital expenditure, investments, processes, and yet, oftentimes, they realize afterwards that the…

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A case study taken from our day to day practice, is presented to show: a) how risk can be used as a key decision parameter and b) how the commonly used Net Present Value (NPV), can create distortions and biases when analyzing reclamation (or other) alternatives. A Case Study is presented to show that risks should be used as a discriminant parameter from the beginning of any project for successful long term planning and to manage rational decisions. CDA/ESM has…

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