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Probabilities statistics and rate of failure

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure data in literature demand caution even if delving in reputable databases seems to offer a very simple path. Indeed, one of the cornerstones of risk assessments is assessing probabilities of failure of different components. Classic sources examples are: Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment,” IAEA-TECDOC-478, International Atomic Energy Agency (Oct. 1988), (Link to document) and Anon (1991), Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data, RAC Report NPRD, Reliability Analysis Center,Griffiss AFB, NY (Link to…

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ORE2_Tailings integrated platform for Tailings Dams risk analysis and portfolio prioritization

ORE2_Tailings integrated platform for Tailings Dams risk analysis and portfolio prioritization is unique, proven and offers great advantages for its users with great economy of means. Following past experience ORE2_Tailings is based on an integrated approach including: A symptom driven approach which includes 30 diagnostic points covering “the dam’s life” of from inception to the analysis date. A rock-solid benchmarking based on hundred years history of failure and on a theoretical general approach to the evaluation of the probability of…

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Perform operational, tactical and strategic planning avoiding limbic brain traps

We taught MBA students how to Perform operational, tactical and strategic planning avoiding limbic brain traps. During the MBA held at the Turin Business School we ran three exercises geared towards that goal. The exercises 1. A risk assessment on personnel flights This one had the goal to enhance awareness on the need to define the system and the success criteria. It took them a while to formulate the success criteria. Before they did they were considering all possible hazards…

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Information systems and risk management

Information systems and risk management discusses the necessity to create a structured and holistic view on all corporate information. Therefore we look at and how the holistic view should relate to upside and downside risks. Information systems are the set of analytical applications geared toward preparing corporate or project system’s data for business analyses and support to risk informed decision making. Downside risk is the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard by the cost of the undesirable…

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Happy Holidays 2018

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ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure

Today we discuss how ORE2-Tailings allow benchmark of tailings dams probability of failure. The considered mine for this case history has a portfolio of 15 dams. The figure below shows in the vertical axis the annual Probability of failure (pf) results under the form of yellow vertical bars. The extreme of the bars represent the minimum and maximum estimates of the probability of failure for each dam. Hence, the length of the bars measures the uncertainty on the evaluation of…

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Traffic accident caused major explosion in Bologna

On August 6th Italian media sadly reported: Traffic accident caused major explosion in Bologna. Traffic accident caused major explosion in Bologna; What happened Two trailers following each other collided. One of them was loaded with liquid propane. Those two then reportedly hit a third trailers loaded with new cars. The accident happened on a viaduct going through a semi-industrial/ urban environment. A fire started in the car transport trailer. By chance, several police units were either onsite or nearby and…

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Risk Management in Trading

We thank Alexander Nixon for writing this post on Risk Management in Trading Risk Management in Trading Risk management is a necessary but often overlooked requirement to successful trading. The usual scenario is that traders prioritize finding accurate entry signals before learning the basics of risk management. However, this leads to financial failure. Investopedia reports that an estimated failure rate of 90% happens when trading. Business insider documented that 4 out of 5 day traders around the world lose money. Only 1 in 100…

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