complex consequences Archives

BBQ risks probability uncertainty unpredictability

risks probability uncertainty unpredictability Today it’s kinda windy, some clouds, I feel just fine, but my wife thinks it’s cold when the sun goes incognito behind the clouds. Quite an uncertain weather, right? Focus now on the possible downward outcome: rain later in the day, during our open air BBQ (rain is the hazard, BBQ is the part of the system which will be potentially hit). We can measure the related uncertainty using the POP (Probability of Precipitation) released by…

Teaching Risk and Crisis Management. What has changed between 1999 and today?

Teaching Risk and Crisis Management. What has changed In a few months Riskope will celebrate another important anniversary. In 2012 we celebrated two decades of risk and crisis management, decision making support and consulting. In spring 2014 we will reach fifteen years of specialized courses and seminars on the same subject. As we found in our archives the Table of Content of the course we were giving at University of British Columbia (continuous education) UBC in 1999 we decided to…