likelihood of future failures Archives

Deception of Credible scenario

Personal human experience, bounded rationality and deception of credible scenario are important in the context of risk identification. Risk identification is a fundamental phase of a risk assessment. It intervenes after system and objectives definition. Oftentimes we hear that practitioners consider only credible scenarios in a risk identification exercise. Today we explore why only considering credible scenario is a deception and could lead you to disaster. Incidentally, this might be one of the reasons leading numerous unrealistic risk assessment…

Is data indigestion a risk?

In a world that used to be data-starved, is data indigestion a risk? Data starvation It is rare that we review a project where the monitoring system really works. Instruments fail, are destroyed by neighboring construction, by contractors and animals. Winter conditions, soft soils and tailings or other factors forbid access, timely replacement or maintenance. And then, piezometer do not measure the levels they should because of some geotechnical oddity or construction problem, inclinometers are too short, etc. In some…