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Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment

We define an Act of God in probabilistic risk assessment as an event with a probability of occurrence below the general consensus for credibility. In other words it is an unbelievable event that is supposed to be unfathomable “God’s will”. We can quantify probabilities down to certain frequency levels. As a matter of fact, in our day-to-day practice we consider events probabilities as follows: down to 10-5 as credible, between 10-5 and 10-6 as poorly credible, and finally, below 10-6…

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Integrating traditional knowledge in risk assessments

Lately we have been busy working on a mining related comprehensive risk assessment. Integrating traditional knowledge in risk assessments proved to be a significant skill as public records and other usually available data were almost non-existent. We use the adjective “comprehensive” for risk assessments covering multi hazards (earthquake, flood, man-made, etc…). The term also covers assessments with a variety of targets such as population, environment, as well as supply chain network elements. Various source of information When performing a comprehensive…

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