Probabilities of climate change events

Probabilities of climate change events is the natural extension of our prior blogpost on the ICMM climate change report. Will climate change generate new hazards? Because of the complexity of the issue, let’s start with a few statements. We will discuss climate change effects, but not climate change causes. In addition, let’s note that climate change may generate some “new” hazards, for instance, large scale, generalized: methane releases in permafrost areas (domes, pingos), ocean acidification, frost-free seasons allowing parasite to…

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Probabilities statistics and rate of failure

Probabilities statistics and rate of failure data in literature demand caution even if delving in reputable databases seems to offer a very simple path. Indeed, one of the cornerstones of risk assessments is assessing probabilities of failure of different components. Classic sources examples are: Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment,” IAEA-TECDOC-478, International Atomic Energy Agency (Oct. 1988), (Link to document) and Anon (1991), Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data, RAC Report NPRD, Reliability Analysis Center,Griffiss AFB, NY (Link to…

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