Probability Impact Graphs do not fly. For short PIGs do not fly was part of the title of a risk management course we gave at TMW 2012. In that course we explained why Probability Impact Graphs (PIGs) and “heat maps” are obsolete, misleading and should be abandoned. We recently read a paper by D. Vose who is finally “kinda coming to our side”. We are delighted by his paper. Indeed, at Riskope we started over ten years ago to point out…
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This interview ” Answering risk questions that cannot be answered with common practice approaches ” was recently published by Mind the Gap! We have added the red titlesto this version. The original questions are numbered Q1 to Q10. How large is the gap between companies following common practices vs. Best practices? Q1: After we first met, Franco, I realized how much proforma is the kind of Risk Management we do in our endeavors. How large is the gap between companies…
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A client considering a full scale ORE deployment asked for a risk assessment comparison on a system including 5 macro-elements in one of his processes. A risk assessment comparison on a system including 5 macro-elements The client wanted to compare a quantitative: common practice risk assessment result with risk assessment with ranges expressing probabilities and finally risk assessment where we would consider interdependencies between macro-elements. ORE deployment We estimated quantitative probabilities of failure of each macro-elements based on case histories…
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More questions raised by Probability Impact graphs common practice is all about the lack of logical robustness of the 4×4 or 5×5 risk matrix approaches. We oftentimes see PIGs risk matrix (probability impact graphs) based “ERM binning exercises” being presented where the scale of the graph (generally the consequence axis) is adapted when going from operational to corporate level. This practice certainly does not help a rational approach to strategic, tactical, operational levels and raises several questions. More questions raised by…
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In this blogpost we discuss Riskope’s participation to the 2014 International Symposium on Business and Management. Riskope’s participation to the 2014 International Symposium on Business and Management We decided Riskope’s participation to the 2014 International Symposium on Business and Management in Nagoya last winter. We strongly believe that our proprietary Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE) methodology has to be brought to the attention of an increasing number of industries and decision-makers world-wide. ORE allows to enhance governance and leadership. It transforms…
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What to do instead than common practice Probability Impact Graphs and FMEA Consider this a summarized guide to introduce you to the procedure to avoid obsolete and flawed common practice approaches. What to do instead than common practice Probability Impact Graphs and FMEA? In fact, you can find information on the “rules” for proper risk assessment here an interesting white paper entitled “What you need to know about Risk Management methods” here. The white paper presents the benefits and limitations of…
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Rejection of Pipeline Proposal and Shutdown of Grasberg Mine in Indonesia: different events, one common cause? Two news have triggered the writing of this post: BC rejects oil pipeline proposal for Enbridge’s Northern Gateway and Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Grasberg Mine, Indonesia. That is the world’s largest gold mine and third largest copper mine. It could stay shut for two months after Indonesia minister calls for halt in the aftermath of a truck accident. It has been less than…
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Riskope Short Course at Colorado State University: On Sunday, October 14, 2012 (08:30AM to 5:00PM) Riskope will present a short course at Colorado University Tailings and Mining 2012 Conference on ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates). This short one day course will bring much needed answers to anyone involved in evaluating tailings risks in projects. Those include pre-feasibility level, operations, decision-making in the mining industry. We will use plain language and our standard technical glossary . Because of that, no mathematical knowledge is…
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