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Three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount

Oftentimes we hear people objecting to quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Thus today we show three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount. Now, do not get mistaken, those are not the only cases where QRA is useful. However, they are particularly significant. Risk review of a mining mega project New projects are always exciting. Therefore their promoters oftentimes get emotionally attached to them to the point of forgetting that they may be exposed to significant risks. The use of codes…

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Hunger stones refresh our short memory

Hunger stones refresh our short memory, they are indeed messages straight from the past. Those who endured droughts and resulting famine left them for their successors. Indeed, the hunger stones tell stories of severe hardship due to droughts. Of course they become visible when it is too late, as they are normally lying below water level (Hungersteine in the Rhine – Memory of great need – Experience Worms (worms-erleben.de). Today we will discuss if these events actually constitute divergence from…

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A Case Study on ALARP Optimization

A Case Study on ALARP Optimization is the title our paper at Tailings 2022. The combination of probability of failure and consequences generates the potential risks of dams and other structures. Designers and owners should design, mitigate and monitor throughout the life and toward closure of dams. The GISTM indicates an ALARP objective for mitigation. In the paper we use an anonymized case to show how a dam’s probability of failure and risks evolve with its raising. In a second…

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Zero to 300 in thirty

Zero to 300 in thirty is not the performance of a new sensational sport car. And we are talking about thirty years, not seconds! Actually, zero to 300 in thirty years is the cumulative experience Riskope and its founders have dealing with tailings dams risk assessments all over the world.  You should not understand it as an “average” evaluation either, as the evolution has been trending towards exponential. Let’s discover together what we are talking about. Zero to 300 in…

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TCFD and TNFD for mining

TCFD and TNFD for mining: concepts, examples and caveats, is the paper we presented at #CIMBC22 Mineral Economics and Finance. Photograph provided by: Adolfo Tribst Corrêa We asked the audience if they were familiar with the: Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosure (Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures | TCFD) (fsb-tcfd.org) and Task Force in Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD – Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures). Only a couple hands rose. Significant points of our discussion on TCFD and TNFD for…

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FUV vs RIDM friends or foes at CIMBC22

FUV vs RIDM friends or foes at CIMBC22 sounds like a riddle, right? But it is not! Please, note FUV was actually never written as an acronym. Actually FUV stands for firmitas, utilitas, et venustas in Latin language.  Today we freely translate the terms into English as reliability, serviceability and beauty, straying a tad away from the original meaning. However, Henry Wotton, a seventeenth century translator, coined “firmness, commodity, and delight” as essential components of all successful architectural design. Wotton remained faithful…

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World-wide ORE2_Tailings quantitative risk assessment experience

Riskope’s world-wide ORE2_Tailings quantitative risk assessment experience can be summarized in one single graph we will show below. ORE2_Tailings™ (©Riskope, 2014-*) is a subset of ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates) which is a “universal” platform for quantitative risk assessments, ERM we deploy for: mining, i.e. tailings, open pits, transportation, forestry and finally suppliers. We have deployed ORE for hundreds of operations worldwide. Today we will focus on tailings storage facilities. Sample portfolio for ORE2_Tailings™ performance summary  We selected a sample portfolio…

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The five laws of stupidity and risk management

The five laws of stupidity and risk management are deeply interconnected. As a matter of fact, stupidity is often the root cause of many accidents, in any industry or human endeavor. Haven’t we all heard phrases like: “… it was a stupid accident”, “it was a stupid mistake…”? Like usual, we will ensure that the glossary is crystal clear before we discuss the subject. And like usual, you will see that a clear glossary is absolutely vital. The classic definition…

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