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TMW2022 discussion and video presentation

TMW2022 discussion and video presentation covers some important points and coveys our gratitude to the friendly colleagues that helped us overcome a significant work overload. Indeed, for the first time since 2013, we could not make it to the conference to present in person the results of our R&D. We were particularly sorry for this, as the reviewer wrote: The authors present a discussion on how to optimize actions needed to address risk mitigation to ALARP for a large TSF…

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Tailings risk assessment methods comparison

In order to develop a Tailings risk assessment methods comparison we will start by: reviewing a number of existing alternatives to ORE2_Tailings™. This leads to justify the need for the ORE2_Tailings™ approach, discussing what we call the Blackbox objection, which actually applies to all the alternatives and finally the ORE2_Tailings™ procedure, algorithm and results. Alternatives to ORE2_Tailings™ We have grouped possible alternatives into four families discussed below. FMEA FMEA is not a quantitative risk assessment even if it uses indices…

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Three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount

Oftentimes we hear people objecting to quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Thus today we show three cases where quantitative risk assessment was paramount. Now, do not get mistaken, those are not the only cases where QRA is useful. However, they are particularly significant. Risk review of a mining mega project New projects are always exciting. Therefore their promoters oftentimes get emotionally attached to them to the point of forgetting that they may be exposed to significant risks. The use of codes…

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Tailings risks correlations

Tailings risk correlations or lack thereof refers to a phenomenon we oftentimes encounter in ORE ERMs deployments in various industries. The risk bubble in the p-C graph The figure below shows a classic simplified result from a ERM. The quadrant is the probability (p), Consequence (C) quadrant with the addition of the risk tolerance band. The band has a width corresponding to the divergent opinion between optimistic and pessimistic key stakeholders on tolerance. A given hazard has uncertainties on both…

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Worldwide tailings benchmarks ten years later

A colleague sent us a paper by Rana, Ghahramani, Evans, Small, Skermer, McDougall and Take.  We reference it herein as Rana’s 2022 paper. The title is “Global magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures and impacts of large water-retention dams and mine tailings impoundments”. It is available online since Aug. 3rd 2022 at Earth-Science Reviews (2022), . I must confess at first I was quite intimidated. Almost a decade earlier we had written Factual and Foreseeable Reliability of Tailings Dams and Nuclear…

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Questions on ALARP studies at Tailings 2022

 Readers and conference delegates asked the following Questions on ALARP studies at Tailings 2022 and when they read a case study on ALARP optimization. National regulation compliance Are the results of an ALARP analysis consistent with national regulations and design requirements?  When we perform an ALARP analysis we consider local regulations. These will drive some a priori mitigative selections by the engineer of record. These bear on the nature and aim of mitigation stages  for the ALARP analysis. For instance,…

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A Case Study on ALARP Optimization

A Case Study on ALARP Optimization is the title our paper at Tailings 2022. The combination of probability of failure and consequences generates the potential risks of dams and other structures. Designers and owners should design, mitigate and monitor throughout the life and toward closure of dams. The GISTM indicates an ALARP objective for mitigation. In the paper we use an anonymized case to show how a dam’s probability of failure and risks evolve with its raising. In a second…

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Zero to 300 in thirty

Zero to 300 in thirty is not the performance of a new sensational sport car. And we are talking about thirty years, not seconds! Actually, zero to 300 in thirty years is the cumulative experience Riskope and its founders have dealing with tailings dams risk assessments all over the world.  You should not understand it as an “average” evaluation either, as the evolution has been trending towards exponential. Let’s discover together what we are talking about. Zero to 300 in…

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